Professors Ramón Tamames, Pedro Schwartz, Emilio Ontiveros and Juan Torres analyze the data on growth of the Spanish economy
Prominent Professors of Economy have gathered together at FENAVIN to debate on the current macroeconomic scope and the challenges that our economy faces in order to leave the crisis behind. A round table in which Ramón Tamames has participated as the moderator, along with Pedro Schwartz, Emilio Ontiveros and Juan Torres: "The Present and Future of the Spanish Economy: Potentialities of the Recuperation and Path of Progress, sponsored by Banco Sabadell.
After introducing the lecturers, Ramón Tamames, the prestigious Professor of Economic Structure, has opened the debate with a question: Is the crisis over? Tamames has underscored that "following an important recession, the macroeconomic data points towards an obvious recuperation". According to the latest Official Gazette of the Bank of Spain, the inter-annual rate of growth of the Spanish economy stands at 2.5%, and the bank regulator forecasts an advance of 2.8% by the end of the year. The recuperation of credit, the policy of the European Central Bank (ECB), the drop in the price of oil, distribution of regional income, the increase of tax income at 3.5%, the reduction of the deficit at 5.72% less than the European forecast…are some of the factors that have contributed to the "beginning of the change in the Spanish growth models, in which companies are positioning themselves abroad and which also give the consumers some confidence".
In view of this current situation, Emilio Ontiveros, Professor of Financing at the Autonomous University of Madrid, Juan Torres, Professor of Applied Economy at the University of Seville and Pedro Schwartz, "Rafael del Pino Foundation" Professor of the University Camilo José Cela, in the order that they intervened, have analyzed this information and offered their particular point of view on the recuperation.
In the opinion of the Manchego born Professor, Emilio Ontiveros, who returns to his land to participate in FENAVIN, "we find ourselves with an evident recuperation, that is however also vulnerable and circumstantial". He likewise considers that Spain is the economy that has benefited the most from the European Union, underscoring the importance of strengthening it and wagering on quality growth.
On his part, Juan Torres also considers that the change in the tendency of growth is obvious, highlighting that it must be "sustained, beneficial and contribute in the best way possible to collective and personal welfare". In his opinion we are immersed "in a clear cycle component", key of which resides in "sustained reactivation of the Economy, in the recuperation of the importance of the salaries and in the need to establish a social agreement".
Pedro Schwartz has been the last lecturer to intervene in the table, concluding by indicating that he is not in agreement with either Ontiveros or Torres. He considers that "affirming that the effective demand is the lever that will take Spain out of the crisis is a profoundly misguided point". From his perspective private companies and families would explain that the crisis is over due to the austerity that has been imposed, experience that has also repeated itself in other countries such as Great Britain and Portugal.
Despite the encouraging forecasts, all the participants agreed that Spain finds itself in a delicate situation due to the impact of the foreign crisis; in the second place because we have a domestic model with many weaknesses; and in the third place because we have a European context that hinders taking any measures to resolve the two impacts described above. Due to this reason it would be important that the leaders of the political and social structure take new steps that reinforce and consolidate this reticent recuperation that we are experiencing.